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Three
50-minute classes.
This lesson allows elementary students to explore probability by using
games based on probable outcomes of events. Students will demonstrate
their understanding of basic probability concepts as they learn to
name all of the possible outcomes of an event as well as ways to express
the likelihood of such an event occurring.
: Mathematics
Students will be able to:
Identify
all of the possible outcomes of a given event.
Predict
the likelihood of an event occurring based on a data set.
Simulate
the likelihood of an event occurring.
Collect,
organize, display, and interpret data.
Develop
winning game strategies based on probable outcomes of
events.
National Council for Teachers in Mathematics Principles
and Standards
http://standards.nctm.org/document/
Data Analysis and Probability: Understand and apply basic concepts of
probability.
Louisiana Mathematics
Frameworks:
State Standards for Curriculum Development
http://www.louisianaschools.net/DOE/assessment/standards/MATH.pdf
D-5-E: Predicting outcomes based on probability (e.g., make
predictions of same chance, more likely, or less likely; determine fair
and unfair games);
D-6-E: Demonstrating the connection of data
analysis, probability, and discrete math to other strands
and real-life situations;
D-4-M: Analyzing various counting and enumeration
procedures with and without replacement (e.g., find the
total number of possible outcomes or possible choices
in a given situation);
D-5-M: Comparing experimental probability
results with theoretical probability (e.g., representing
probabilities of concrete situations as common fractions,
investigating single-event and multiple-event probability,
using sample spaces, geometric figures, tables);
D-6-M: Demonstrating the connection of data
analysis, probability, and discrete math to other strands
and to real-life situations.
Video:
Cyberchase Episode: R Fair City
Cyberchase is an animated adventure series on
PBS Kids. The series is designed to engage students in the
fun and challenge of mathematics. The program is aired daily.
Visit the Web site: http://www.pbskids.org/cyberchase to
access the interactive features of the Web site and to obtain
the broadcast dates for each episode.
Web sites:
PBS Kids Cyberchase Virtual Coin Toss
http://www.pbskids.org/cyberchase/games/probability/index.html
This Web site provides students with an opportunity to simulate tossing
a coin multiple times. Students can toss the virtual coin as many as
10,000 times to discover the probability of getting heads or tails when
a coin is tossed.
NOTE: This Web site doesn’t allow students
to see the coin being tossed. Students enter a number
to tell how many tosses they want to the computer to
perform. The results are generated automatically and
the results are displayed.
http://www.geocities.com/thesciencefiles/rollthe/dice.html
This Web site allows students to explore the possible outcomes that can
occur when two number cubes are rolled.
Per Student:
Math journal
Per Every Two Students:
1 coin
Coin toss recording sheet
Pair of number cubes or
dot cubes
Roll one number cube recording
sheet
Doggie Get a Bone Game
board
12 chips (beans, counters,
etc.)
Frequency Table #1
Frequency Table #2
Per Group (of four students):
Cardstock or any type of
heavy paper
Markers
Pencils
Paper
Scissors
Glue
Assorted school supply
items
Per Teacher:
1 coin
Pair of number cubes or
dot cubes
12 chips (beans, counters,
etc.)
Doggie
Get a Bone game
board transparency
Per Group:
Computer with Internet
Access or Computer with PC/TV adapter or a projector
VCR Tape of R
Fair City (check web site for broadcast dates)
Visit the Web site:
http://www.pbskids.org/cyberchase to
access the interactive features of the Web site and to
obtain the broadcast dates for each episode.
Television with VCR
Overhead Projector
Chart paper
Paper
Pencils
Prior to teaching this lesson:
1. Bookmark the Web sites: http://www.pbskids.org/cyberchase/games/probability/index.html and
http://www.geocities.com/thesciencefiles/rollthe/dice.html
2. Obtain a copy of the Cyberchase episode: R Fair City.
3. View the episode R Fair City.
Preparation for the hands-on component of the lesson:
1. Make copies of the student activity sheets: Coin Toss
Recording Sheet, Roll One Number Cube recording sheet, Frequency
Table,
2. Prepare chart paper for class graphs for the
following activities: Coin Toss graph, Doggie
Get a Bone graph, and Roll Two Number Cubes graph.
3. Make copies of the Doggie Get a Bone game
board (You may want to laminate the game boards for future
use.)
When using media, provide students with
a FOCUS FOR MEDIA INTERACTION, a specific task to
complete and/or information to identify during or after viewing
of video segments, Web sites, or other multimedia elements.
Day One: 50 minutes
Step 1: To introduce the lesson
topic to students, show students a coin. Point out to students
that each coin has two sides … one side marked with
a head and one side marked with a tail. Show students each
side of the coin and allow them to identify “heads” and “tails”.
Step 2: Ask students to name the
possible outcomes that can occur when a coin is tossed. Introduce
the term “outcomes” to the students. Students
should identify heads or tails as the possible outcomes.
Ask
students to describe the chances of heads or tails occurring when a
coin is tossed. Tell students that we can predict the probability (how
likely an event is to occur) of an outcome occurring. Focus the discussion
on ways to express the probability of heads occurring when a coin is
tossed (one out of two, ½, .50, 50%). Student answers will vary
based on their personal experiences with expressing probability. Continue
the discussion by describing the chance of tails occurring when a coin
is tossed. Students should conclude that there is a 50/50 chance of
heads or tails occurring when a coin is tossed. Introduce the term “fair
chance” (it is equally likely that heads or tails will occur
when a coin is tossed.)
Step 3: Tell students that they
are going to conduct a coin toss experiment to find out if
there is a fair chance of heads or tails occurring when a
coin is tossed. Allow each student to make and record a prediction
about the outcome of the experiment.
Step 4: Divide students into pairs
and provide each pair with a coin and a recording sheet.
Instruct students to toss their coins 10 times and record
the results. Discuss the results. Questions to include in
the discussion: “Did your results match your predictions?
If not, why do you think this occurred? Compare your results
to another group’s results. Were your findings the
same?”
Step 5: Instruct students to toss
their coins 20 times and record the results. Discuss the
results. Using the class coin toss graph, allow students
to record their results. Ask students, “What do you
think will happen if we tossed our coins MORE than 30 times?
Do you think the results will show a 50/50 chance or close
to a 50/50 chance of heads or tails occurring when the coin
is tossed? Why or why not?”
Step 6: Use the class computer with
PC/TV adapter, a projector, or allow students to work in
small groups to log on to http://www.pbskids.org/cyberchase/games/probability/index.html.
Students will use the virtual coin toss to simulate the tossing
of a coin. NOTE: This website doesn’t allow
students to see the coin being tossed. Students enter a number
to tell how many tosses they want to the computer to perform.
The results are generated automatically and the results are
displayed. Provide your students with a FOCUS FOR MEDIA
INTERACTION, asking them to toss the virtual coin 1,000
times and analyze the results. Ask students to complete a
journal entry that answers the following question: “Do
you believe that there is a 50/50 chance of heads or tails
occurring when a coin is tossed? Why or Why not? Use evidence
from the class results and the virtual coin toss to defend
your answer.” Allow students to share the journal
entries. Students should determine that the more times a
coin is tossed the results come closer to showing a 50/50
chance of heads or tails occurring when a coin is tossed.
Day Two: 50 minutes
Step 1: Review the discussion from
the previous day’s lesson. Use a class chart to record
the students’ findings/conclusions.
Step 2: Show students a number cube
or dot cube and ask students to identify the possible outcomes
that can occur when a number cube is rolled. Students should
identify the possible outcomes as the numbers from 1 to 6.
Allow students to use their experiences from the previous
day to describe the probability of each number occurring.
Students should record all predictions in their math journals.
Ask students to determine if one number has a better chance
of occurring than another when a number cube is rolled.
Step 3: Divide students into pairs
and allow each group to roll a number cube 30 times and record
the results. “Check your group’s results with
your prediction.”
Step 4: Allow students to place
their data on a class graph. Compile, graph, and analyze
the class results.
Step 5: Show students two number
cubes and tell students that they are going to explore the
possible outcomes that can occur when two number cubes are
rolled. Roll two number cubes and ask students to add the
two numbers together to get the sum. Tell students, “You
are going to conduct an experiment to find out what sum(s)
occur most often when two number cubes are rolled and the
sums are recorded. We will play a game that will help us
with our experiment.”
Step 6: Place the transparency of
the Doggie Get a Bone game board on the overhead
projector. Explain the rules of the game to the students.
Doggie
Get a Bone Game Rules
Players place one chip on each dog. Roll the two number cubes
and add the two numbers to get the sum. Move the chip forward
one space for the dog wearing the number that corresponds with
the sum rolled. Keep playing the game until there is a winner.
The winning dog is the first dog to reach the bone at the end
of the game board.
|
Play one game as a class using the transparency as the class
game board. Place one chip on each dog. Roll two number cubes
and select a student to calculate the sum. Advance the chip one
space for the dog with the number that corresponds to the sum
rolled. Keep playing until there is a winner. Using the prepared
class graph, record the results to show which dog won the first
game.
Step 7: Allow students to work in pairs. Provide each
pair with a copy of the Doggie Get a Bone game
board and two number cubes. Each pair should play the game one
time and record their findings on a frequency table and on the
class graph. Allow students to play the game two more times to
collect more data. Students should record their results on their
frequency tables and on the class graph. Use the class graph
to discuss the results. Possible questions to pose to students: “Is
it possible to get a sum of 1?” “What is the smallest
sum you can get?” What is the greatest sum you can get?” “Which
dog won most often?” “Which dog was second place?
Third place?” “If you roll the cubes again, which
sum are you most likely to get? least likely to get? Why?” “Have
you observed any patterns?” “Using the results of
this game, what predictions can you make about the sum(s) that
occur most often when two number cubes are rolled?” Instruct
students to record their predictions in their math journals.
Tell students that they will have the opportunity to use a Web
site that allows you to roll two number cubes many times to collect
more data on this experiment.
Step 8: Use the class computer with pc/TV adapter, projector,
or allow students to work in small groups to log on to http://ww.geocities.com/thesciencefiles/rollthe/dice.html.
Students will “roll” the virtual number cubes and
record the sums that occur. Provide your students with a FOCUS
FOR MEDIA INTERACTION, asking them to “roll” the
number cubes 50 times and record the results with tally marks.
Ask students, “Do the results support your prediction?
If yes, tell how. If no, tell how. Can you make any conclusions
about the sum(s) that occur most often when two number cubes
are rolled? Use evidence from the class graph and the virtual
number cubes to support your conclusion.” Allow students
to record their findings in their math journals.
Step 9: Assist students in making a class frequency table
that shows the possible sums and the number of ways to get each
sum. See example included with this packet. Allow students to
express the probability of each sum occurring when two number
cubes are rolled. (Students could express probabilities as fractions.
For example the probability of the sum 3 occurring when two number
cubes are rolled is 2/36 or 2 chances out of 36 possible outcomes.
Day 3
Step 1: Using the class graphs, student journal entries,
and frequency tables review student findings about probability.
You may find it helpful to record student findings on chart paper.
Step 2: Ask students if they know how to determine if
a game gives everyone a fair chance. Student answers may vary.
Step 3: Insert Cyberchase episode, R Fair City into
your VCR. Provide your students with a FOCUS FOR MEDIA
INTERACTION. Ask students to watch the video segment and
note the method the kids and Lucky used to determine whether
or not they would pay her for their cab ride. START the
tape at the segment where the kids enter R-Fair City. PAUSE the
tape after the kids get into the cab. Check for comprehension.
(Students should state that Lucky used a coin toss to decide
if the kids will pay for the cab ride or receive a free ride.)
Ask students if they agree that a coin toss is fair to everyone. “Can
you think of a game we played in class that proves that a coin
toss gives everyone a fair chance?”
Step 4: Provide your students with a FOCUS FOR
MEDIA INTERACTION, asking them to listen closely as the
kids play the worm game in R Fair City. Ask students
to write down the “rap” the kids used to determine
if a game is fair (everyone has an equal chance of winning.) RESUME
PLAYING the tape from its previous pause point until
the end of the segment showing the kids and Lucky at Grubby’s
Wacky Worm game stand. STOP the tape. Check for comprehension.
Allow students to describe the Wacky Worm game and tell how
this game is similar to the roll one number cube game. Write
Lucky’s rap on chart paper and discuss it with the
students. (LUCKY’S RAP: “TO BE SURE IT’S
FAIR LOOK AT THE GAME, EVERYONE’S CHANCE OF WINNING
MUST BE THE SAME.) Allow students to apply Lucky’s
rule to the roll one number cube game. “Is it fair?” “Use
Lucky’s rule to test the roll two number cubes game.
Is it fair?”
Step 5: Provide your students with a FOCUS FOR
MEDIA INTERACTION. Tell students to write down the numbers
on the zergons. “What are the rules for Hacker’s
game?” “Do you think it is a fair game?”
FAST FORWARD the tape to the segment that shows
Inez, Jackie, and Matt playing the zergon game with Hacker.
PLAY the tape until Jackie tells Inez that they should
put the zergon game to the “fairness” test
using Lucky’s rap. STOP the tape. Check for
comprehension. Students should list the numbers on the
zergons as 1, 2, 3, and 4. Hacker’s rule: Each person
chooses two zergons, the numbers on the zergons are multiplied,
and Matt wins if the numbers are odd and Hacker wins if
the numbers are even. Student answers will vary as to whether
or not the game is fair.
Step 6: Instruct students to make a frequency table showing
the possible products.
Possible
Outcomes
|
Even
|
Odd
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1 x 2 = 2
|
X
|
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1 x 3 = 3
|
|
X
|
1 x 4 = 4
|
X
|
|
2 x 3 = 6
|
X
|
|
2 x 4 = 8
|
X
|
|
3 x 4 = 12
|
X
|
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Ask students to answer the questions: “Is Hacker’s
game fair? How many chances are there to get an even product?
How many ways are there to get an odd product? Is everyone’s
chance of winning the same? Tell why or why not.” Allow
students to record their answers in their math journals. Discuss
student findings as a whole group.
Step 7: Provide your students with a FOCUS FOR MEDIA
INTERACTION. Tell students that they will be allowed to
watch the next segment to find out the results of Jackie and
Inez’s “fairness” test. “Did their
findings match the class results?” RESUME PLAYING the
tape from its previous stopping point until the girls “outsmart” Hacker
and force him to fall into the water. Tell students “We’ve
had the opportunity to play a variety of probability games.
We’ve also learned how to test a game to find out if
everyone has a fair chance of winning. You are going to work
with a group of your friends to design a game that gives everyone
a fair chance. Allow time for students to review and discuss
some of the games from the other lesson activities. List each
game and discuss the probability of “winning” for
each game. Remind students of the coin toss and worm game from
the Cyberchase episode. Write Lucky’s rap
on chart paper and remind students that they may want to use
the rap to test their games. Divide students into groups of
four; distribute cardstock, markers, paper, and other school
supply items. Have number cubes and coins available for student
use also. Allow students to work on designing their games.
Allow students to present their games to another group when
the games are completed. Each group should evaluate the games
to make certain that everyone has a fair chance of winning.
Step 8: Assessment Procedures
Teacher Observation
Class Participation
Student performance
on the class activities.
Student work
will be evaluated based on the successful completion of all
assigned tasks and the completed recording sheets for all activities.
LANGUAGE ARTS:
Instruct
students to write a letter to the mayor of R-Fair City that
explains why Hacker should not be allowed to play the zergon
game. Use mathematical language and evidence to prove that
the game isn’t fair in your letter.
Instruct
students to write a letter to the mayor of R-Fair City that
explains why Hacker should not be allowed to play the zergon
game. Use mathematical language and evidence to prove that
the game isn’t fair in your letter.
See attached, Student Materials include:
Doggie Get a Bone game board ( PDF )
Coin Toss Recording
sheet ( PDF )
Roll One Number
Cube Recording Sheet ( PDF )
Frequency Table
#1 ( PDF )
Frequency Table
#2 ( PDF )
Student Math
Journal Page ( PDF )
Sample Frequency
Table ( PDF )